Bitcoin (BTC) delivers its strongest single-day returns on US federal holidays, according to a CoinGecko study covering May 2013 to May 2026, with New Year’s Day producing an average next-day return of +2.01% and an 84.6% win rate.
The research analyzed 4,753 daily price observations and found that US holidays produced an average next-day return of +0.77 %, roughly four times the +0.19% baseline for non-holidays.
Holiday Effect Skews Heavily Positive
On the win-rate side, Columbus Day also hit 84.6%, with a +1.70% next-day average. Christmas Day produced a smaller +1.46% gain on a 53.8% win rate, while Labor Day registered +1.22% across a 69.2% win rate, according to CoinGecko.
Two holidays buck the trend. Martin Luther King Jr. Day averages -0.84%, dragged down by a -18.65% Bitcoin drop on January 15, 2018. Independence Day averages -0.26%, with both holidays posting win rates below 50%.
CoinGecko researchers .
The effect held even as BTC prices ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, despite the split 2026 price outlook between bulls and bears.
Day-of-Week Effect Fades Over Longer Horizons
Within the trading week, Monday and Wednesday tied at +0.38% average next-day returns. Thursday is the only day to post a negative average at -0.09%.
The weekday-weekend gap was just 0.01%, far narrower than the documented Uptober seasonality effect.
On a 365-day horizon, every weekday produced returns between 142.15% and 144.56%. CoinGecko called the spread negligible relative to Bitcoin’s volatility.
The data suggests extends into next year’s January setup remains an open question.
