Zcash (ZEC) has surged nearly 16.8% over the past week, ranking among the strongest weekly performers in the top 100 cryptocurrencies.

The privacy-focused asset outperformed majors such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) during the same period.

The Bull Case for Zcash Comes With a Built-In Ceiling

At the time of writing, ZEC traded at $411.7, up 6.95% over the past 24 hours.

Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa previously -$400s or low-$500s if ZEC holds above that level, and it has already cleared that zone. Nonetheless, he also expects a “big pullback” once ZEC reaches the levels.

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Zcash Rises as 3 Signals Point to a Fragile Rally

Meanwhile, the bullish view contrasts with on-chain analysis from Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal. Wedson now sees three reasons for caution.

“ZEC has gained fresh momentum, but it lacks on-chain structure and sentiment support,” he said.

Wedson argued that long-term holders have already moved their coins earlier in the cycle, with little recent activity observed. He also pointed to a sharp drop in social media posts around the token. 

Lastly, the “Alpha Price” metric, used to estimate potential cycle tops, shows a wide gap near $1,500, suggesting that such levels may be unrealistic given historical behavior.

“Even though ZEC is rising in the short term, extra caution is needed now due to market sensitivity. This could also be a signal for sellers who have not yet sold the remaining coins they still hold,” the executive added.

While Zcash continues to show strong short-term price action, the divergence between market momentum and underlying indicators suggests a more nuanced outlook. The current rally may persist if buying pressure holds, but weakening engagement and limited on-chain confirmation could increase downside risk.

For now, ZEC’s trajectory appears to hinge on whether it can sustain momentum above recent breakout levels while attracting renewed investor participation.

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